Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f3c…75c9
weather · 93 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$53 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 80
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage54d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? No 98¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rhett Marques be the Republican nominee for AL-01? No 95¢ 72¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 27? No 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 3? No 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15? No 98¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 24? No 98¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on April 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? May 31 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 16? May 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 14? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15? May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Areeq Chowdhury win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral ele May 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 6? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 6? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 5? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 4? May 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$53
other 4% +$1
politics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 1¢ $0 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 43h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? BUY No 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $15 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 33 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 90 -28.6% -35.4% 11% 0% -14.9%
all 90 -28.6% -35.4% 11% 0% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 0% -14.9%
10% -41.6% 0% -23.1%
15% -47.2% 0% -30.5%
20% -52.4% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.71 · official $64.71 (match) · 288 history records