Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f3d…95b1 sports 524 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,167 (-5%) realized −$1,140 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%122W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$419est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days+$308
14 days−$1,423
30 days−$1,423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,399
crypto 1% −$32
other 0% −$10
politics 0% −$10
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -3.1% -12.3% 27% 27% -7.8%
≤30d 466 -16.1% -24.1% 24% 24% -16.2%
≤90d 466 -16.1% -24.1% 24% 24% -16.2%
all 491 -15.2% -23.3% 25% 24% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 24% -16.0%
10% -30.6% 23% -24.1%
15% -37.3% 23% -31.4%
20% -43.5% 22% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$33 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$750
Realized−$1,140
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses122 / 369
Est. fees paid−$419
Open positions33
Markets (closed)491 / 524
History coverage179d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Hannah Klugman 16¢ 16¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Under 20¢ 41¢ $25 $52 +$27 (+107%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Frances Tiafoe 37¢ 36¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Under 23¢ 22¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Henry Searle 57¢ 72¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Under 23¢ 36¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 56¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Chicago Wolves 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Kansas City Royals 19¢ 19¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Rinky Hijikata 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) New York Yankees 15¢ 22¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+52%)
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Carlos Sanchez Jover 29¢ 30¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Raphael Collignon 52¢ 54¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Minnesota Twins 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 6¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Switzerland 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ 22¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ 20¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 21¢ 21¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs GenOne 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 19¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 189 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 18 $20 +$60 +291%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 18 $29 +$32 +107%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 17 $14 +$59 +414%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $132 +$99 +75%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $20 +$38 +188%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $31 +$98 +318%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $26 +$71 +276%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $31 +$87 +285%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $36 +$88 +246%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $111 −$29 -26%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $91 −$90 -98%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $45 −$44 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 +$110 +216%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 17 $10 +$56 +550%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$62 +203%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $31 +$54 +175%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $51 +$96 +188%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 16¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY GenOne 38¢ $15 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 16¢ $26 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Chicago Wolves 46¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $37 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 13¢ $15 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 23¢ $35 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 17¢ $5 6h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 21¢ $15 6h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Henry Searle 57¢ $25 6h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $15 6h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Carole Monnet 16¢ $13 6h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 52¢ $20 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 30¢ $10 6h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 19¢ $15 6h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 22¢ $20 6h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $36 6h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 30¢ $31 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 6h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 21¢ $31 6h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $31 6h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 17¢ $10 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $51 9h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 29¢ $26 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic 11¢ $10 9h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 17¢ $31 9h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 7¢ $21 9h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 9h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $21 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $750.06 · official $748.26 (match) · 843 history records