Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7f3e…82a3 other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+10%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$112
sports 20% +$6
crypto 14% −$57
politics 3% +$12
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 43% +6.6%
≤30d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 43% +6.6%
≤90d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 43% +6.6%
all 90 -10.4% -19.0% 36% 33% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 33% -1.4%
10% -26.7% 31% -10.8%
15% -33.8% 29% -19.4%
20% -40.3% 22% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage193d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -17%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -94%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$25 +48%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 +$23 +44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -9%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$9 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$12 +27%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$20 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -58%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $18 +$16 +91%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 03 $10 +$3 +28%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $10 +$10 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 28? Dec 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 28? Dec 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 21? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Dec 20 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 18? Dec 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" while addressing the nation Dec 18 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on D Dec 18 $20 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "ISIS" or "Syria" while addressing the nation on Decemb Dec 18 $3 +$4 +150%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $1 +$7 +733%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $120 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 3h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $75 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $74 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $52 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 33h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.36 · official $34.36 (match) · 175 history records