Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f40…c8ff sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$369 (+10%) realized +$402 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 61L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$284
14 days+$270
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$171
other 0% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +10.5% -0.0% 43% 40% -0.4%
≤30d 110 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 42% -2.2%
≤90d 110 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 42% -2.2%
all 110 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 42% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 42% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 36% -11.6%
15% -20.8% 34% -20.1%
20% -28.6% 27% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$18 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$402
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 61
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage9d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Flame Team 23¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$56 +140%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $76 −$75 -99%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $281 +$26 +9%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $123 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $150 +$56 +37%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $137 +$27 +20%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $44 +$9 +21%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $136 −$18 -14%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 +$73 +982%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $162 −$50 -31%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $168 +$57 +34%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $84 +$14 +16%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $208 −$54 -26%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $126 +$107 +85%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$27 -89%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $80 +$12 +15%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$28 -92%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $69 −$68 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $80 +$19 +24%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $92 +$36 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $28 +$62 +226%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$58 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $87 +$12 +13%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$39 +422%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 +$52 +140%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$21 +144%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $32 +$16 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $40 +$67 +170%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $62 +$91 +147%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$8 +186%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $37 −$12 -33%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $67 +$34 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 24¢ $1 22m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 30¢ $10 23m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 21¢ $25 23m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 74¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 30¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 27¢ $28 3h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $14 3h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 55¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 44¢ $29 3h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 100¢ $177 4h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 90¢ $45 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 90¢ $90 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 82¢ $16 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 60¢ $14 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 60¢ $24 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 60¢ $17 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $51 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 50¢ $74 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 52¢ $7 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 51¢ $71 5h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 62¢ $46 6h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 45¢ $78 6h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 57¢ $58 6h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 43¢ $66 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 11¢ $11 21h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 46¢ $45 22h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 30¢ $30 22h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Estar Backs 50¢ $49 23h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Estar Backs 51¢ $33 23h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Estar Backs 51¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 399 history records