Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7f41…0054 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$17 (+16%) realized +$21 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$15
sports 10% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +48.0% +33.9% 100% 75% +32.9%
≤30d 4 +48.0% +33.9% 100% 75% +32.9%
≤90d 4 +48.0% +33.9% 100% 75% +32.9%
all 4 +48.0% +33.9% 100% 75% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.9% 75% +32.9%
10% +21.1% 75% +20.2%
15% +9.4% 75% +8.6%
20% -1.3% 50% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 52¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$10 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$1 +8%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$8 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 15h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $10 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.67 · official $45.67 (match) · 12 history records