Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f41…0cc9 sports 131 markets active 4h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$21 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%63W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$9
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$12
sports 38% +$6
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +15.0% +4.0% 60% 44% -5.8%
≤30d 117 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 46% -6.3%
≤90d 117 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 46% -6.3%
all 117 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 46% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 46% -6.3%
10% -10.7% 45% -15.2%
15% -19.3% 44% -23.4%
20% -27.3% 42% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses63 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)117 / 131
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots Jun 22 $1 +$1 +82%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 +26%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +82%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$4 +172%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 +$7 +61%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 $0 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 +$2 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$2 +206%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +89%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -94%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 −$1 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +115%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6h
Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 10h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 11h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 29h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 34h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Germany to score first vs. Côte d' BUY 69¢ $10 36h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 40¢ $2 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $2 40h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 40h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.90 · official $57.92 (match) · 228 history records