Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f45…595a other 52 markets active 2d ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$49 (-30%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$48
world 7% $0
sports 5% +$2
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 47 -16.5% -24.4% 17% 11% -22.5%
≤90d 47 -16.5% -24.4% 17% 11% -22.5%
all 52 -17.9% -25.7% 21% 13% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 13% -43.2%
10% -32.8% 12% -48.6%
15% -39.3% 10% -53.6%
20% -45.3% 10% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage246d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 +$14 +1288%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +183%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +442%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$12 +1115%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -76%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +63%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 04 $5 +$1 +26%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? Oct 23 $60 −$15 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records