Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7F 0x7f46…9097 sports 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,552 (-4%) realized −$2,546 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%87W / 116L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$927est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,015
7 days−$6,168
14 days−$6,358
30 days−$6,483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$2,699
other 5% −$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -26.6% -33.6% 29% 29% -39.7%
≤30d 163 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 41% -20.5%
≤90d 203 -6.2% -15.1% 43% 42% -13.4%
all 203 -6.2% -15.1% 43% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 42% -13.4%
10% -23.3% 41% -21.7%
15% -30.7% 39% -29.2%
20% -37.5% 36% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$339 vs −$280 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$2,546
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses87 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$927
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage51d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 28¢ 27¢ $221 $215 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $766 +$762 +100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $243 +$306 +126%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $74 +$78 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$88 +44%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $759 +$533 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $756 −$750 -99%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $181 +$201 +111%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $470 −$469 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 20 $128 −$125 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $941 −$654 -70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $174 −$172 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $775 −$775 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 19 $207 −$204 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $424 −$418 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,398 +$1,756 +73%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,447 −$2,414 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $49 +$291 +596%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $408 −$401 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$11 +152%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $533 −$526 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $147 −$145 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $332 −$326 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $110 +$322 +291%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $496 −$490 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $722 −$713 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $71 −$69 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $348 −$345 -99%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $113 −$111 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $373 −$370 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $816 +$697 +85%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $828 +$472 +57%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $123 −$120 -98%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $286 −$282 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $1,148 +$567 +49%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $127 −$124 -98%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $64 +$6 +9%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $710 −$700 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 28¢ $16 18m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 28¢ $98 19m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 27¢ $111 23m
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,528 1h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $45 4h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 4h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $456 4h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 5h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $188 5h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 5h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $43 5h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $1 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $74 23h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 44¢ $123 28h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 43¢ $120 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $756 47h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $749 47h
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY 100 Thieves 31¢ $107 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $759 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $100 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $65 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $304 2d
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 25¢ $128 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $306 2d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Walczaki 62¢ $250 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.13 · official $215.13 (match) · 583 history records