Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f46…4c19 weather 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%105W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% $0
other 12% $0
crypto 11% $0
politics 5% $0
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 -0.0% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 245 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 247 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses105 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage212d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jim Carlin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 31? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on May 30? May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 29? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 29? May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.7%? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 2 and 3 days? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ma May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 27? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $28 3h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 16d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $18 17d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 23d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 23d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 23d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 23d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $3 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 23d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $8 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $18 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? SELL No 100¢ $0 24d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? SELL No 100¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 657 history records