trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 0% | 0% | -14.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -36.2% | -42.3% | 0% | 0% | -25.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -6.2% | -15.2% | 25% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 27 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 37% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.1% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -20.5% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -28.2% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $46 | $46 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 22 | $31 | −$2 | -5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 27 | $8 | −$5 | -68% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $61 | +$5 | +8% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 23 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $51 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 22 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 21 | $93 | +$1 | +1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 21 | $37 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 21 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 20 | $52 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 20 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 18 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 18 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20? | Jun 17 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 17 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh | Jun 16 | $22 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? | Jun 16 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 16 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 15 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 12 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? | Jun 12 | $25 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 11 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 11 | $25 | $0 | +0% |