Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7f51…dc67 crypto 840 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-3%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%555W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day68.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$79
14 days−$77
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +15.2% +4.2% 57% 51% -21.3%
≤30d 757 +3.2% -6.7% 64% 47% -9.1%
≤90d 862 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 44% -10.9%
all 862 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 44% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 44% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 26% -19.4%
15% -24.2% 19% -27.2%
20% -31.6% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses555 / 307
Open positions1
Markets (closed)862 / 840
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day68.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 60¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +209%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$11 -110%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$3 -126%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$7 -155%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$4 -441%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1154%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -336%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +2142%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +1417%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $0.84 (match) · 3500 history records