Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f54…ac8d other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,053 (+5%) realized +$1,008 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$2,545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$312
14 days+$312
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,039
sports 40% +$850
crypto 3% −$613
world 2% −$408
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +18.2% +6.9% 72% 66% -7.2%
≤30d 29 +18.2% +6.9% 72% 66% -7.2%
≤90d 30 +17.9% +6.6% 73% 63% -5.4%
all 30 +17.9% +6.6% 73% 63% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 63% -5.4%
10% -3.6% 50% -14.4%
15% -12.9% 27% -22.7%
20% -21.4% 17% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$684) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$272 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$2,545
Realized+$1,008
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions10
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage54d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $200 $297 +$97 (+49%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $200 $265 +$65 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $177 −$23 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $200 $126 −$74 (-37%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$114 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $204 +$213 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $354 +$100 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $510 −$364 -71%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +35%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$79 -76%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$75 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $487 +$352 +72%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $505 +$89 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $711 −$331 -47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $923 +$198 +22%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,509 +$42 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $507 +$197 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$96 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $903 +$425 +47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $408 −$408 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $202 +$51 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$78 +305%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $115 +$13 +11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $684 +$223 +33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $508 −$367 -72%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 +$49 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $709 −$613 -86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$57 +56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$34 +33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,005 +$28 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $5,868 +$510 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $508 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $204 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $510 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $146 17h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $24 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $204 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $354 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $510 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $203 33h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $505 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $136 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $205 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $244 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $416 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $1,509 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $203 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $404 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $487 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $506 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $507 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $700 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $507 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $907 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $115 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,544.87 · official $2,544.91 (match) · 87 history records