Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f58…0306 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%39W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$6
crypto 8% +$2
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 53 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses39 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage515d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $5,862 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 10 $42 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Feb 10 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 62d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 98¢ $38 63d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 121d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $12 151d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $44 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $45 212d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 243d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 243d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 274d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $4 333d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $40 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 364d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 395d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5,856 413d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5,862 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.89 · official $46.89 (match) · 113 history records