Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f5b…dfed other 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-22%) realized −$7 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$9
sports 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -49.3% -54.1% 22% 22% -53.3%
≤30d 9 -49.3% -54.1% 22% 22% -53.3%
≤90d 9 -49.3% -54.1% 22% 22% -53.3%
all 9 -49.3% -54.1% 22% 22% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.1% 22% -53.3%
10% -58.5% 22% -57.8%
15% -62.5% 22% -61.8%
20% -66.2% 22% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+266%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.67 · official $8.67 (match) · 20 history records