Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f5e…db3a crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-10%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 55% -17.7%
≤30d 23 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 52% -26.4%
≤90d 23 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 52% -26.4%
all 23 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 52% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 52% -26.4%
10% -21.3% 48% -33.5%
15% -28.9% 43% -39.9%
20% -35.9% 30% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$32 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage22d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $106 +$52 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$36 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$18 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $80 −$75 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $158 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $51 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $34 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $63 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records