Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f60…832f crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$136 (+1%) realized +$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$594per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$4
other 17% +$11
sports 16% +$117
world 10% +$1
tech 10% +$2
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 88% 6% -8.3%
all 16 +0.3% -9.2% 88% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 6% -8.3%
10% -17.9% 6% -17.1%
15% -25.8% 6% -25.1%
20% -33.1% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$210 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage97d
Avg bet$594
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $202 $202 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $872 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $971 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $970 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $969 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? May 14 $969 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $967 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 14? Apr 15 $318 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? Apr 15 $647 +$1 +0%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 10 $264 +$536 +203%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $215 −$215 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 8? Apr 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 8? Apr 09 $287 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 8? Apr 09 $529 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $846 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? Mar 31 $845 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $872 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $971 17d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $970 31d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $969 35d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $969 49d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $967 62d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $647 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $318 77d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $160 79d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $1 79d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $7 79d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $72 79d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $24 79d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LNG Esports 43¢ $215 80d
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 41¢ $205 80d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $287 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $529 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $846 88d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $845 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.90 · official $201.90 (match) · 36 history records