Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f67…874e crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-11%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$24
sports 19% −$8
other 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 53% -6.0%
≤30d 17 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 53% -6.0%
≤90d 28 -24.3% -31.5% 46% 43% -18.0%
all 28 -24.3% -31.5% 46% 43% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 43% -18.0%
10% -38.1% 32% -25.8%
15% -44.1% 29% -33.0%
20% -49.6% 25% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage78d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $25 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$12 +228%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $9 −$9 -99%
Will FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? May 02 $5 +$3 +57%
Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 04 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner SELL Germany 100¢ $36 14m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner BUY Germany 70¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $10 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $47 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $9 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 4d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 49d
Will FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 49d
Will FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 49d
Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records