Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f6c…3206 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$305 (-3%) realized −$303 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate83%45W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$8
crypto 44% +$12
politics 6% −$145
tech 3% −$15
sports 2% −$142
finance 1% $0
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 54 -7.8% -16.6% 83% 4% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 4% -12.6%
10% -24.6% 4% -21.0%
15% -31.9% 4% -28.6%
20% -38.5% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$40 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$303
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses45 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage611d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $188 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $190 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on May 30? May 31 $130 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $120 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $262 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $260 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 15 $187 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 22 $215 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Apr 08 $228 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 12 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 06 $255 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 16-22? Feb 25 $255 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 21 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 21 $15 −$14 -91%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 17 $310 $0 +0%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 03 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on November 6? Dec 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 11 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 06 $128 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 23? Nov 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 23 $160 $0 +0%
Solana above $250 on September 5? Oct 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5? Oct 09 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 13? Aug 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 12 $280 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? Jul 27 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jul 18 $233 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jun 17 $257 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 12 $125 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 23 $259 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 25 $250 +$3 +1%
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday? Mar 04 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Feb 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Feb 07 $25 −$25 -100%
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024? Feb 07 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Feb 07 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 11 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 16d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $70 16d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $190 16d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $130 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $120 28d
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 39d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 40d
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $77 63d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $187 63d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 77d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $215 77d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $228 104d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 110d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 100¢ $255 119d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $255 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 99¢ $264 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 141d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $265 141d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $250 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 3? BUY No 100¢ $310 171d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 182d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY No 100¢ $300 185d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $300 194d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $300 229d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on November 6? BUY No 100¢ $10 229d
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 23? BUY No 100¢ $150 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.29 · official $256.29 (match) · 115 history records