trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | No | 76¢ | 90¢ | $100 | $119 | +$19 (+19%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | No | 53¢ | 37¢ | $120 | $83 | −$37 (-31%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 25¢ | $67 | $69 | +$1 (+2%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 52¢ | $56 | $51 | −$4 (-8%) |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | No | 55¢ | 32¢ | $74 | $43 | −$31 (-42%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | No | 62¢ | 64¢ | $39 | $40 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 14¢ | $35 | $28 | −$7 (-19%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 11¢ | $19 | $24 | +$5 (+29%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | No | 37¢ | 16¢ | $25 | $11 | −$14 (-57%) |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 82¢ | $11 | $11 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $87 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 50% | 50% | -4.3% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 50% | 50% | -4.3% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 50% | 50% | -4.3% |
| all | 2 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 50% | 50% | -4.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -4.6% | 50% | -4.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -13.8% | 0% | -13.4% |
| 15% | -22.1% | 0% | -21.8% |
| 20% | -29.7% | 0% | -29.5% |