Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f6f…749f crypto 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%108W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$25
other 26% +$2
politics 6% $0
weather 5% $0
world 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 97 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 110 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -8.5%
10% -17.8% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×18.55 per $1 lost it wins $18.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses108 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage564d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary el May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 4-10? May 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 May 4-10? May 11 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $19 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 22d
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliament BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 24d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $29 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $11 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 25d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 27d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY Yes 100¢ $15 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $21 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $17 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $26 29d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 100¢ $21 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $22 30d
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe BUY No 100¢ $16 31d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 31d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.96 · official $61.96 (match) · 228 history records