Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f77…8ca9 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-10%) realized −$50 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$39
other 15% −$8
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +13.2% +2.4% 44% 44% +6.0%
≤30d 53 +11.1% +0.5% 43% 43% +5.7%
≤90d 82 -5.4% -14.4% 33% 32% -21.5%
all 87 -4.1% -13.2% 34% 33% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 33% -16.6%
10% -21.5% 32% -24.5%
15% -29.1% 31% -31.8%
20% -36.0% 29% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 92
History coverage191d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 35¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $11 $3 −$9 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$12 +234%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +468%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $3 +$15 +490%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$9 +126%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$3 -37%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +137%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$8 +185%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $18 +$12 +63%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$7 +139%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$19 +185%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$8 +162%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$9 +128%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$4 -98%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 +$5 +99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2 +$4 +223%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $5 34m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $17 35m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 29¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 15¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $20 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 17¢ $2 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $3 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 SELL 96¢ $18 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 87¢ $17 23h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 60¢ $10 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 14¢ $2 26h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 29¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 27h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $3 27h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Heretics 90¢ $19 27h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 38¢ $8 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $16 28h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $32 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 62¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $7 30h
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 31h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $3 46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.15 · official $40.15 (match) · 152 history records