Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f7d…2304 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9,088 (-29%) realized −$9,088 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,293per market
Trades / day132.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10,839
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -47.6% -52.6% 29% 25% -41.8%
≤30d 24 -47.6% -52.6% 29% 25% -41.8%
≤90d 24 -47.6% -52.6% 29% 25% -41.8%
all 24 -47.6% -52.6% 29% 25% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.6% 25% -41.8%
10% -57.1% 21% -47.4%
15% ← realistic here -61.2% 17% -52.5%
20% -65.0% 12% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,732) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$795 vs −$965 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,088
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,293
Trades / day132.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $72 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $999 −$956 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $1,014 +$50 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $1,782 −$38 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $793 +$270 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $848 −$848 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $4,829 −$4,616 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1,450 −$1,371 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $2,175 −$2,073 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $4,616 +$2,980 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $1,559 −$1,497 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $1,421 −$1,382 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $1,530 +$764 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1,732 +$1,007 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $1,545 −$1,497 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $1,189 −$960 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $2,331 +$463 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $799 −$768 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$28 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $237 −$237 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $201 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1,063 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $344 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $186 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $199 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1,063 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $196 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $196 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records