Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f82…c446 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,350 (-18%) realized −$1,486 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate21%55W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days+$159
14 days+$161
30 days−$1,327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,463
sports 39% −$251
crypto 2% +$171
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -2.3% -11.6% 11% 6% -2.6%
≤30d 226 -7.8% -16.6% 16% 11% -33.1%
≤90d 256 -9.0% -17.6% 21% 16% -29.1%
all 256 -9.0% -17.6% 21% 16% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 16% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 7% -35.9%
15% -32.7% 4% -42.1%
20% -39.3% 2% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,486
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses55 / 201
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage32d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 12¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? No 52¢ $306 $0 −$306 (-100%)
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 30¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? Yes 46¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13? Yes 13¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Yes 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Ducks 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? No 36¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 19¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-16? No 56¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) Como 1907 57¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Ducks 66¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? Yes 71¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-15? Yes 38¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 57¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-16? No $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 69¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-17? No 11¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 58¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? Yes 36¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 73¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 +$168 +298%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$86 +42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$6 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $25 +$12 +49%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 +$14 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -4%
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Ramp IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Vanta IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
US congress stock trading ban before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Glean IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Deel IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 88¢ $219 50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $51 59m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $288 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $20 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $51 18h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 19h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 47¢ $27 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 77¢ $62 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 62¢ $51 24h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 78¢ $13 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $10 28h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $21 42h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 74¢ $33 44h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 45¢ $20 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 68¢ $38 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 41¢ $10 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 46¢ $4 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 41¢ $10 45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 86¢ $18 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $10 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 12¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 82¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.26 (match) · 1129 history records