Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

7F 0x7f82…1779 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$6 (+6%) realized +$7 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown75%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$12

7 days+$7

14 days+$6

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+1.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+13.2%	+2.5%	50%	50%	+4.3%
≤30d	15	+12.2%	+1.5%	47%	47%	-3.3%
≤90d	15	+12.2%	+1.5%	47%	47%	-3.3%
all	15	+12.2%	+1.5%	47%	47%	-3.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.5%	47%	-3.3%
10%	-8.2%	47%	-12.6%
15%	-17.1%	47%	-21.0%
20%	-25.2%	47%	-28.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage

Net worth$14

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage24d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown75%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$4	$3	−$0 (-14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$2	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-44%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	Jun 15	$2	$0	-11%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3	+$2	+92%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$10	+$5	+55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-74%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	+$3	+54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$3	−$2	-62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$3	+$2	+96%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	$0	-8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$4	+$4	+79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$7	$0	+0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jun 09	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 09	$1	+$1	+74%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$44	−$1	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	15¢	$1	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	16¢	$2	1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	SELL Sweden	55¢	$3	1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	BUY Sweden	29¢	$1	1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	70¢	$9	10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	53¢	$7	11h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	33¢	$3	11h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	33¢	$2	11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$3	14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	52¢	$3	19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	12¢	$0	23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$1	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$8	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	60¢	$5	23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	11¢	$1	23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	24h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	17¢	$1	26h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	51¢	$3	27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$4	36h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	48¢	$5	37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	66¢	$7	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	33¢	$7	3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	37¢	$2	5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	9d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	0¢	$0	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.88 · official $13.88 (match) · 49 history records