Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f84…b9e3 world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$10
other 14% $0
politics 13% −$1
sports 12% −$12
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 68 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 69 -2.0% -11.4% 38% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage488d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $129 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $44 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $57 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $122 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $39 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $12 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $90 +$5 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $41 +$2 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $80 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $77 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $1 $0 -15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $20 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $29 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $11 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.05 · official $38.00 (match) · 304 history records