Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f84…e4b4 other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,836 (+12%) realized +$3,879 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$290
14 days−$290
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$9,170
world 28% −$4,288
finance 9% −$713
sports 1% −$210
crypto 1% −$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 24 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 25% -7.7%
all 54 +18.7% +7.4% 31% 31% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 31% +0.7%
10% -2.8% 31% -9.0%
15% -12.2% 31% -17.8%
20% -20.8% 28% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$660) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +26% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,190 vs −$447 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$3,879
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage118d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $323 $255 −$68 (-21%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 7¢ 64¢ $3 $28 +$25 (+837%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $144 −$140 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $350 +$682 +195%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $530 +$3,758 +709%
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? Apr 08 $660 −$608 -92%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 07 $1,200 −$380 -32%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $450 −$323 -72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Apr 02 $2,578 −$2,578 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $1,400 +$1,800 +129%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $100 +$316 +316%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $500 +$718 +144%
Will Croatia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $510 +$1,400 +275%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $483 −$442 -92%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Nepal win on 2026-03-26? Mar 25 $250 −$238 -95%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-03-26? Mar 25 $150 −$140 -93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 25 $1,819 −$1,192 -66%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1,540 +$3,937 +256%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 22 $1,278 +$479 +38%
Will KRC Genk win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 20 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $100 +$149 +148%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $200 +$80 +40%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $200 +$638 +319%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $100 +$271 +271%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Mar 10 $466 −$263 -56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $2,900 +$1,563 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $580 +$822 +142%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $50 −$5 -11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $380 −$372 -98%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 05 $800 −$590 -74%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $100 +$573 +573%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $200 −$168 -84%
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31? Mar 02 $100 −$83 -83%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1,200 −$1,169 -97%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $1,730 +$1,662 +96%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $340 +$1,387 +408%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $200 −$114 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 11m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $144 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $154 5h
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 57d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $685 63d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $347 64d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 30¢ $350 64d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,295 64d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 89¢ $993 64d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 64d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $500 64d
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $52 74d
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 75d
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 75d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, SELL Yes 15¢ $820 75d
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $130 76d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $127 76d
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $330 76d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 80d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, BUY Yes 14¢ $200 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $200 83d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 83d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 84d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,000 84d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, BUY Yes 24¢ $1,000 84d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $300 84d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $3,200 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.64 · official $282.64 (match) · 189 history records