Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f84…b4c4 crypto 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$42 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%55W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$27
14 days+$37
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$69
crypto 20% −$55
other 9% +$51
finance 9% +$19
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.9% +5.8% 43% 43% +0.9%
≤30d 39 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 51% +2.2%
≤90d 116 -16.2% -24.2% 36% 30% -19.3%
all 144 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 33% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 33% -11.7%
10% -18.8% 29% -20.1%
15% -26.7% 27% -27.8%
20% -33.8% 23% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses55 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage112d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 67¢ 82¢ $17 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $28 +$3 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$4 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $33 −$2 -5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$5 -17%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $47 +$7 +16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $22 +$27 +123%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$4 +51%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -19%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? May 29 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4AM ET May 26 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? May 06 $22 −$21 -97%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 Week of May 4 2026? May 04 $15 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? May 03 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 03 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $3 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6m
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 13m
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 13h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 44h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $8 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $19 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $40 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $31 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $26 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $4 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $33 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $25 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $14 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $16 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 50¢ $20 5d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 50¢ $20 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $47 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $49 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 7d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $12 7d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 8d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? SELL Down 50¢ $4 9d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 60¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 1¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.15 · official $24.15 (match) · 406 history records