Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f85…8693 other 376 markets active 61d ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$757 (+1%) realized +$505 · open +$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate32%118W / 250L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$2,849
economics 18% −$1,300
politics 17% −$1,577
world 10% −$1,886
tech 5% −$827
culture 3% +$607
crypto 2% +$432
sports 1% −$184
finance 1% −$61
weather 0% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -33.3% -39.7% 20% 20% -2.5%
all 368 -27.0% -33.9% 32% 17% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 17% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 13% -18.7%
15% -46.0% 9% -26.5%
20% -51.3% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$47 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$853
Realized+$505
Unrealized+$252
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses118 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)368 / 376
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$177
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 10¢ 24¢ $200 $490 +$290 (+145%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $35 $123 +$88 (+248%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $130 $65 −$65 (-50%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $12 $43 +$31 (+268%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 9¢ 80¢ $1 $12 +$10 (+794%)
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $54 $10 −$43 (-81%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-80%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $33 $3 −$31 (-92%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 53¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 40¢ 2¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March? Apr 15 $15 +$35 +233%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in March? Mar 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Mar 08 $92 +$21 +22%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 08 $48 +$30 +62%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 08 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 08 $125 −$85 -68%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 06 $6 +$135 +2366%
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal R Mar 05 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $7 −$7 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 05 $91 +$66 +72%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $70 −$40 -57%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $350 −$37 -11%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Th Mar 04 $2,022 −$246 -12%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 04 $925 −$588 -64%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 04 $282 +$7 +3%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $32 −$6 -17%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $419 +$104 +25%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $1,177 −$846 -72%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $973 −$22 -2%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Feb 28 $104 −$104 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $282 +$18 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,472 −$508 -34%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 26 $252 −$96 -38%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $1,875 −$186 -10%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 26 $281 +$6 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $366 −$44 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? Feb 20 $125 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 19 $52 −$46 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 19 $123 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 18 $11 −$6 -56%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 18 $177 −$177 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $285 −$177 -62%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $25 +$14 +55%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 15 $296 +$24 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY No 25¢ $18 60d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 61d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 61d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $12 68d
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March? BUY No 30¢ $1 97d
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March? BUY No 30¢ $14 97d
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in March? BUY No 2¢ $5 98d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 98d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $16 98d
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $113 98d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 98d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 40¢ $110 98d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 3¢ $9 98d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 43¢ $11 98d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 98d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 98d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 98d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $49 99d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $67 99d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $4 99d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 99d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 99d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 99d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 99d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $6 99d
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in March? BUY No 3¢ $9 101d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? BUY No 0¢ $2 101d
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal R BUY No 10¢ $40 101d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? SELL No 67¢ $122 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.27 · official $853.31 (match) · 3500 history records