Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f87…134d
crypto · 105 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$37 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$131
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses54 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 105
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 5 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$35
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 59¢ 56¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 55¢ 80¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+47%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 70¢ 55¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 29¢ 22¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? No 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $115 +$37 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$6 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $132 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 27 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 22 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 21 $90 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 18 $3 −$1 -37%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? May 18 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store May 18 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M May 17 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 17 $12 −$11 -86%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 17 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 17 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 17 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 17 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 17 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 17 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$60
crypto 35% −$57
tech 6% −$20
other 5% +$9
politics 4% −$24
culture 4% −$7
finance 1% +$4
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 29¢ $20 19h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $87 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $40 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 90¢ $20 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $48 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +31.8% +19.3% 100% 100% +19.3%
≤30d 73 -11.6% -20.0% 58% 29% -8.3%
≤90d 100 -16.5% -24.5% 54% 27% -10.8%
all 100 -16.5% -24.5% 54% 27% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 27% -10.8%
10% -31.7% 17% -19.3%
15% -38.3% 8% -27.1%
20% -44.3% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.81 · official $130.81 (match) · 340 history records