Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f8a…d706 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+24%) realized +$70 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$71
sports 37% −$2
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +46.3%
≤90d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +46.3%
all 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 50% +46.3%
10% -30.3% 50% +32.3%
15% -37.1% 50% +19.5%
20% -43.2% 50% +7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +62% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$5 · ×13.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.33 per $1 lost it wins $13.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage11d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $101 +$71 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 10d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.47 · official $167.47 (match) · 6 history records