Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7F 0x7f8a…b29b crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,230 (-21%) realized −$1,230 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$290per market

Trades / day43.0pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-18.4%	-26.2%	55%	50%	-39.2%
≤30d	20	-18.4%	-26.2%	55%	50%	-39.2%
≤90d	20	-18.4%	-26.2%	55%	50%	-39.2%
all	20	-18.4%	-26.2%	55%	50%	-39.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover43.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-26.2%	50%	-39.2%
10% ← realistic here	-33.3%	35%	-45.0%
15%	-39.7%	20%	-50.3%
20%	-45.6%	10%	-55.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -42% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$261 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.22 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,230

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$290

Trades / day43.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 15	$264	−$8	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 15	$205	+$58	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 15	$418	−$200	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 15	$204	+$53	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 15	$104	−$1	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 15	$937	+$13	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 15	$304	+$156	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 15	$266	+$39	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 15	$328	+$59	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 15	$183	+$25	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 15	$117	+$67	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 15	$106	−$106	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$2,216	−$1,995	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 15	$52	+$26	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 15	$19	−$19	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 15	$52	+$20	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	SELL Up	52¢	$256	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$264	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Up	68¢	$264	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$205	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$208	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	SELL Up	14¢	$96	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$210	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Down	93¢	$257	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$204	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Down	47¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$474	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$474	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	SELL Down	42¢	$476	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$463	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	SELL Down	41¢	$461	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$304	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$305	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$266	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$120	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$214	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$208	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	SELL Down	48¢	$208	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$183	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$184	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$117	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$106	2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	8¢	$221	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Up	36¢	$2	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$2	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records