Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:12:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f8f…d060 world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-15%) realized −$27 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$7
crypto 14% −$80
other 1% −$10
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$621
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $600 $601 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $600 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $104 4d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $621.21 · official $621.21 (match) · 9 history records