Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f90…9968
crypto · 88 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$277 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$278 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses68 / 15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage579d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 4 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $121 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $110 +$7 +7%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 02 $113 −$71 -63%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026? May 02 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 02 $41 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 02 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? May 02 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Apr 13 $58 +$3 +6%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Mar 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 25 $51 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $168 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in January 2026? Feb 03 $51 $0 +1%
Will Tesla reach $645 in January? Feb 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? Feb 03 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jan 08 $281 −$281 -100%
Yieldbasis FDV above $3B one day after launch? Oct 17 $281 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 18? Oct 16 $249 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 14 $279 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 5? Oct 10 $52 +$28 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 03 $251 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $60 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Sep 01 $30 $0 +1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Sep 01 $189 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4700 August 18–24? Aug 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before August? Aug 07 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 07 $229 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 06 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 06 $202 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Belarus start mining Bitcoin before June? Jun 05 $33 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 10 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the next Pope be Black? May 05 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down in April? May 03 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% +$110
politics 20% −$254
other 12% −$76
world 6% −$61
economics 3% +$2
tech 1% $0
sports 1% +$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 17h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $121 28d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $10 28d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $100 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $100 38d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $41 42d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 61d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY No 91¢ $46 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 61d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $3,000 61¢ $61 61d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $110 80d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 80d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 80d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 80d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 80d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? BUY $3,000 58¢ $58 80d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $111 80d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $51 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $51 83d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 99d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $110 99d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $169 99d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 99d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $101 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -18.3% -26.0% 80% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 16 -7.8% -16.6% 88% 0% -14.5%
all 83 -5.5% -14.5% 82% 4% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 4% -12.8%
10% -22.7% 2% -21.2%
15% -30.2% 2% -28.8%
20% -37.0% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.02 · official $57.02 · 492 history records