Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f94…5779 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$583 (+5%) realized +$491 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%35W / 35L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days+$354
14 days+$349
30 days+$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$381
sports 47% +$55
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -17.7% -25.5% 52% 33% -6.9%
≤30d 70 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 31% -7.0%
≤90d 70 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 31% -7.0%
all 70 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 31% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 31% -7.0%
10% -33.8% 21% -15.9%
15% -40.2% 17% -24.0%
20% -46.0% 13% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$50 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$491
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses35 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage250d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $87 $177 +$90 (+103%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $78 +$65 +83%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $887 +$27 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$124 -61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 +$12 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $700 +$1 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $903 +$65 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $56 −$53 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $869 +$188 +22%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $98 +$52 +54%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $110 −$65 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $120 +$60 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $66 +$14 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$24 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 −$14 -62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $101 −$63 -62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $47 −$23 -49%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $394 +$648 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $716 −$68 -10%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $406 +$24 +6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $70 −$39 -56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$16 -81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $403 +$41 +10%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$56 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $710 +$117 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $20 +$16 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $79 +$31 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $671 +$27 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $45 −$13 -30%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $142 +$41 +29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $777 +$8 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$91 -89%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 +$50 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $131 +$45 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $78 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $78 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $887 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $701 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $700 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $570 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $502 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 92¢ $397 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $401 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 3¢ $3 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $108 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $56 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $774 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $98 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $45 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $95 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $110 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $66 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $120 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $101 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $92 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 92¢ $460 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 69¢ $439 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $394 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $394 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.00 · official $224.00 (match) · 190 history records