Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f94…d234 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$13
politics 11% −$7
other 4% +$4
sports 1% −$44
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 38 -8.7% -17.4% 18% 11% -12.4%
all 51 -6.7% -15.6% 20% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 8% -9.8%
10% -23.6% 8% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 8% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage602d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $7 +$6 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$7 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $9 +$5 +49%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $47 +$1 +3%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $13,539 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $381 −$3 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $537 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $369 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $9 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $11 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $5 22d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $5 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $19 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $6 27d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 37d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 37d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 40d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.43 · official $33.43 (match) · 222 history records