Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f96…a226
other · 637 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$147 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$223 · open +$69
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,011
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses353 / 248
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions36
Markets (closed)601 / 637
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 36 History 601 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$34
14 days+$53
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $162 $198 +$36 (+22%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 69¢ 82¢ $119 $142 +$23 (+19%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? No 68¢ 74¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $34 $53 +$20 (+58%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $60 $50 −$10 (-16%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $51 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 (High)? No 93¢ 92¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 77¢ 92¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 48¢ 66¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+36%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $32 $25 −$6 (-20%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? No 73¢ 57¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 54¢ 45¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)? No 71¢ 68¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 73¢ 78¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+10%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 36¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $22 +$4 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +41%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$2 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 10 $35 +$7 +21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $13 +$1 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $51 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $18 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$6 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 07 $113 +$8 +7%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 07 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $32 $0 -1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 06 $14 −$4 -30%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $100 −$18 -18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 +1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $110 +$6 +5%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$10 +47%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 01 $80 +$15 +19%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 29 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e May 29 $40 −$4 -9%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M May 28 $137 +$28 +21%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 27 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest May 25 $134 −$35 -26%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $14 +$4 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $56 −$21 -37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $63 −$63 -99%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 21 $49 +$8 +17%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 26% +$127
world 26% −$178
politics 24% −$83
economics 14% −$43
finance 5% +$57
sports 4% +$2
crypto 1% −$21
tech 0% −$13
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( BUY Yes 91¢ $3 2h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( BUY No 92¢ $10 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $3 10h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $4 11h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 2¢ $6 11h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 17¢ $54 12h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 24¢ $72 12h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 12h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $12 12h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 12h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $19 12h
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 13h
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL No 97¢ $26 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $1 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 13h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 44¢ $4 15h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( BUY No 69¢ $17 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $31 20h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 54¢ $3 20h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 21h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 54¢ $8 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $5 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 85¢ $9 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 85¢ $13 22h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 5¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 29% -4.7%
≤30d 73 -5.0% -14.1% 60% 34% -15.6%
≤90d 190 -9.0% -17.7% 57% 36% -13.9%
all 601 -1.0% -10.4% 59% 38% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 38% -10.4%
10% -19.0% 25% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 17% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.11 · official $1,011.11 (match) · 2675 history records