Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f96…7ca8 other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$13
politics 21% −$5
sports 15% −$52
crypto 8% −$2
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 101 -4.1% -13.2% 8% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage132d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $113 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $340 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $386 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $408 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $819 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 15 $443 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $452 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $449 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $194 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $425 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $416 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $249 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $376 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $382 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $228 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 19d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 26d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 27d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 29d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $117 29d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $130 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $130 35d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $243 61d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $243 61d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $207 62d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $207 62d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $194 62d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $194 62d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 62d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $172 62d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 62d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 63d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 63d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 63d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 63d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 63d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 63d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 64d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 294 history records