Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f96…13f4 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$212 (+1%) realized +$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$696per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$54
14 days−$19
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$62
world 46% +$189
crypto 1% −$77
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -37.7% -43.6% 46% 23% -10.5%
≤30d 30 -16.7% -24.6% 63% 27% -8.9%
≤90d 43 -16.2% -24.2% 65% 33% -9.0%
all 43 -16.2% -24.2% 65% 33% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 33% -9.0%
10% -31.5% 26% -17.7%
15% -38.1% 16% -25.7%
20% -44.2% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage63d
Avg bet$696
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,300 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,551 +$31 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,800 +$13 +0%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,097 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $600 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $4,700 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $41 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,700 +$57 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $30 +$5 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,652 +$119 +3%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $4,600 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 25 $72 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $12 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 23 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -28%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 04 $25 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $70 +$8 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $40 +$9 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 20 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 16 $15 −$11 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $1,312 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $3,582 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 99¢ $1,300 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $700 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $300 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $1,400 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $1,000 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,800 9d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $605 11d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY FlyQuest 99¢ $600 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.37 · official $10.37 (match) · 95 history records