Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7F 0x7f96…d5ee other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$36 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%14W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$66

7 days−$144

14 days−$156

30 days−$156

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-11.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-11.8%	-20.2%	50%	50%	-33.5%
≤30d	24	-2.2%	-11.5%	58%	58%	-19.9%
≤90d	24	-2.2%	-11.5%	58%	58%	-19.9%
all	24	-2.2%	-11.5%	58%	58%	-19.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.5%	58%	-19.9%
10%	-20.0%	58%	-27.6%
15%	-27.7%	54%	-34.6%
20%	-34.8%	46%	-41.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$64 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$210

Realized−$36

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses14 / 10

Open positions3

Markets (closed)24 / 27

History coverage17d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	46¢	42¢	$100	$90	−$10 (-10%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	46¢	46¢	$70	$69	−$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$112	−$110	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$51	+$44	+86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$30	+$21	+70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$61	+$36	+60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$61	−$60	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$30	+$14	+48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$60	+119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$23	+46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$71	+$37	+52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30	+$21	+70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	+$56	+109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$30	+$9	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$74	+73%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	Jun 17	$79	−$75	-95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$121	−$120	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	29m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	46¢	$20	29m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	46m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	46¢	$30	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	39¢	$41	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$31	34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$61	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	62¢	$61	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$71	9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$30	11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	BUY No	0¢	$16	12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.02 · official $210.02 (match) · 46 history records