Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f97…6aaf sports 1468 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$362 (-2%) realized −$315 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%807W / 584L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$62
14 days+$63
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$168
world 9% −$8
crypto 6% −$142
other 2% −$85
finance 2% +$79
politics 0% +$17
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +5.2% -4.8% 62% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 821 +4.9% -5.1% 61% 55% -6.0%
≤90d 1384 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 52% -8.6%
all 1391 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 52% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 52% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 46% -17.3%
15% -21.5% 39% -25.3%
20% -29.2% 32% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses807 / 584
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions55
Markets (closed)1391 / 1468
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 1391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $115 $141 +$26 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 98¢ $25 $81 +$56 (+223%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 98¢ $16 $51 +$35 (+217%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 76¢ $40 $36 −$3 (-8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 43¢ 78¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 98¢ $16 $27 +$11 (+67%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 67¢ 84¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+26%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 64¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 36¢ 36¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 83¢ 99¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 22¢ $35 $14 −$21 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 438 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -280%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$12 +42%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$10 +92%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$6 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $16 +$14 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $8 +$5 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 +$5 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$6 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 +$16 +97%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$12 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $8 +$8 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $54 +$86 +158%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $16 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 48m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 59m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $16 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $16 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $4 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 69¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 2h
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $4 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $5 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $8 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $8 5h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $16 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $972.97 · official $972.86 (match) · 3500 history records