Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f9d…9f4f crypto 1217 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (327 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$666 (-17%) realized −$666 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%695W / 689L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day326.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$598
7 days−$684
14 days−$723
30 days−$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$120
other 14% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (327 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1152 -26.2% -33.3% 42% 41% -30.9%
≤30d 1384 -22.4% -29.8% 50% 35% -24.4%
≤90d 1384 -22.4% -29.8% 50% 35% -24.4%
all 1384 -22.4% -29.8% 50% 35% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover326.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 35% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 31% -31.6%
15% -42.7% 22% -38.2%
20% -48.3% 8% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$666
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses695 / 689
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1384 / 1217
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day326.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 349 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -297%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $0.58 (match) · 3500 history records