Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7F 0x7f9e…3a0e world 235 markets active 3d ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$537,492 (+17%) realized +$424,946 · open +$112,546
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%146W / 55L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$13,090per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$3,187est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$689,543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$865
14 days−$24,618
30 days−$30,579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$344,664
finance 15% −$17,430
sports 11% +$135,269
other 4% −$21,242
politics 1% +$2,293
crypto 0% +$916
culture 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +22.0% +10.4% 88% 25% -3.3%
≤30d 47 -13.5% -21.7% 66% 45% -17.8%
≤90d 141 -8.8% -17.5% 70% 37% +0.1%
all 201 -5.5% -14.5% 73% 34% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 34% +3.6%
10% -22.7% 15% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here -30.2% 7% -15.4%
20% -37.0% 4% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$9,614) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,704 vs −$3,798 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$689,543
Realized+$424,946
Unrealized+$112,546
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses146 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3,187
Open positions34
Markets (closed)201 / 235
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$13,090
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 86¢ $407,322 $504,377 +$97,054 (+24%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $45,231 $63,180 +$17,949 (+40%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 78¢ 86¢ $17,336 $18,969 +$1,633 (+9%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 86¢ 89¢ $14,742 $15,202 +$460 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 78¢ 84¢ $12,176 $13,167 +$991 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $17,044 $11,232 −$5,811 (-34%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 89¢ 95¢ $8,149 $8,708 +$560 (+7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $7,936 $8,042 +$106 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $5,239 $5,755 +$516 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3,864 $4,760 +$895 (+23%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 72¢ $4,541 $4,260 −$280 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5,300 $4,250 −$1,050 (-20%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 88¢ 88¢ $3,678 $3,703 +$25 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 94¢ 92¢ $3,734 $3,675 −$59 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 84¢ 86¢ $3,433 $3,492 +$59 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $3,245 $3,403 +$157 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 93¢ 90¢ $2,576 $2,519 −$57 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 62¢ 58¢ $1,623 $1,535 −$88 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,043 $1,110 +$67 (+6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 87¢ $1,000 $1,018 +$18 (+2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $954 $1,007 +$53 (+6%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 65¢ $887 $966 +$79 (+9%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 26¢ $1,059 $858 −$201 (-19%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 61¢ 58¢ $900 $857 −$43 (-5%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 88¢ $740 $815 +$75 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $97 +$132 +136%
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,961 +$42 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 24 $4,671 +$402 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$4 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 24 $4,699 +$193 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 23 $709 +$74 +10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $200 +$23 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $24,548 −$17,902 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,645 +$93 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $8,448 −$7,344 -87%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $6,055 −$5,848 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $9,870 −$9,394 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $1,812 −$1,745 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 17 $703 +$86 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 17 $456 +$114 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10,914 +$1,433 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $59,316 +$14,746 +25%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $17,975 +$510 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,100 +$487 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,113 −$794 -38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$105 +102%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $603 −$22 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $4,240 −$145 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $2,125 +$337 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $4,428 +$815 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $3,588 +$484 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $7,893 +$961 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $2,417 +$552 +23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $6,016 +$1,359 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $10,281 +$1,047 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $11,596 +$2,458 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,305 −$4,279 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $929 +$39 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $13,944 +$2,145 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $12,411 +$4,255 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3,292 +$534 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6,441 −$6,379 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -80%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,763 +$253 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 03 $2,490 −$2,490 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $8,966 −$8,966 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 02 $165 −$165 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $46,052 +$768 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2,381 +$432 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $86 +$26 +30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $6,288 −$6,217 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $5,758 −$5,721 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $2,187 −$1,924 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $783 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $783 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $840 3d
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $900 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $1,740 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $230 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $229 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $45 3d
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $2,014 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $1,961 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,966 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 94¢ $3,669 4d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $150 4d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $304 4d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $252 4d
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $86 4d
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $85 4d
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $252 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $4,798 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 87¢ $652 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $1,529 4d
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $95 4d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 91¢ $945 4d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 90¢ $1,671 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $4,892 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $135 4d
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $143 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $275 4d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $862 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $689,543.33 · official $689,538.59 (match) · 3500 history records