Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7fa0…12e0
crypto · 77 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses38 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage91d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 4 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs. FK Karpaty Lviv end in a draw? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 09 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 09 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? May 09 $2 +$5 +237%
Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $3 +$3 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 $0 +26%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8? May 07 $1 $0 +16%
Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $3 +$4 +145%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $2 +$1 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $1 +$1 +65%
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5 May 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5? May 04 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 20 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$8
other 25% −$25
sports 14% $0
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 8m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 11m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 24¢ $3 35d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 35d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 35d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 35d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 35d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 35d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 35d
Will Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 35d
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 35d
Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 35d
Will Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 35d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.5% -47.1% 50% 50% -24.2%
≤30d 2 -41.5% -47.1% 50% 50% -24.2%
≤90d 52 -23.9% -31.1% 38% 38% -50.4%
all 73 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 45% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 45% -20.1%
10% -24.9% 37% -27.8%
15% -32.2% 32% -34.7%
20% -38.8% 26% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.99 · official $14.99 (match) · 163 history records