Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa0…a7ec world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$3
other 39% −$5
sports 16% +$2
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 42 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 2% -9.5%
all 56 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 11% -9.7%
10% -15.9% 11% -18.3%
15% -24.0% 9% -26.2%
20% -31.5% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage541d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $41 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $45 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $42 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $51 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $66 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $68 −$4 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $25 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $31 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $136 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 24 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $382 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $231 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $132 +$5 +4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $254 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top Champions League scorer? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ole Miss win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
Louisiana vs. Troy Feb 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $7 −$2 -34%
Coppin State vs. SC State Feb 18 $18 +$19 +108%
MD Eastern Shore vs. Howard Feb 18 $2 +$3 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $34 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $33 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $21 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $42 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $38 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $38 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $26 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $18 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.70 · official $38.70 (match) · 187 history records