Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7F 0x7fa1…deeb sports 1671 markets active 7h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,527 (+100%) realized +$3,581 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%640W / 904L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$27
weather 21% −$49
other 18% +$108
politics 4% +$28
tech 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$48
world 1% +$5
culture 1% +$7
finance 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +1.7% -8.0% 35% 34% -8.2%
≤30d 1277 +6.3% -3.8% 41% 40% -5.3%
≤90d 1544 +9.3% -1.1% 41% 40% -3.7%
all 1544 +9.3% -1.1% 41% 40% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 40% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 38% -12.9%
15% -19.2% 36% -21.3%
20% -27.1% 32% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$3,581
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses640 / 904
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions141
Markets (closed)1544 / 1671
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 141 History 1544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+15%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $21 $17 −$5 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs MIBR fe 33¢ 100¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+203%)
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $12 $9 −$4 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs SAW 43¢ 60¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Edmonton Elks 36¢ 72¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+96%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+488%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes 44¢ 18¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+150%)
Zuffa Boxing 8: Sandoval vs. Lee (Welterweight, Main) Lee 56¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Map Handicap: LILMIX (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) Lilmix 40¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 25¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-44%)
Zuffa Boxing 8: Santos vs. Valenzuela (Lightweight, Main) Santos 45¢ 51¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs OlyBet SB 14¢ 26¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs BIG Academy 60¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Map Handicap: MISA (-1.5) vs Wampirki (+1.5) Wampirki 53¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 32¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki - Map 1 Winner Misa Esports 56¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will Milva die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? Yes 22¢ 52¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+139%)
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-51%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 33¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3 +$10 +344%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +107%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $3 +$6 +226%
Will COD Meknès vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 +$4 +388%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$4 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +142%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $0 $0 +16%
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Sina Herrmann Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +30%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $2 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +462%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 56¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 26? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7h
Map Handicap: MISA (-1.5) vs Wampirki (+1.5) BUY Wampirki 53¢ $4 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 60¢ $5 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 43¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 9h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 2¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 10¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.01 · official $293.02 (match) · 3500 history records