Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa3…86e8 world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
Total PnL −$242 (-1%) realized −$257 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate67%62W / 30L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$236
other 4% +$190
sports 3% −$172
politics 3% +$44
crypto 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.4% -7.4% 43% 29% -9.1%
≤30d 32 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 28% -13.5%
≤90d 78 -4.6% -13.7% 67% 38% -10.5%
all 92 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 41% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 41% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 25% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 17% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$169 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$257
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses62 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage106d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 50¢ 68¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 83¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 25¢ 21¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $22 +$20 +89%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $26 −$3 -12%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 −$10 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $180 +$10 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $429 +$25 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $164 −$131 -80%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $15 −$12 -80%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -43%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $77 +$70 +90%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $37 +$40 +110%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $76 −$7 -9%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $22 +$6 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $85 −$21 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $31 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $95 +$10 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $48 −$42 -88%
Will Felix Rosenqvist win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? May 26 $16 +$12 +80%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $38 +$7 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $53 +$21 +40%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $88 +$5 +6%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $166 −$123 -74%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $165 +$17 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $157 +$8 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $341 +$3 +1%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 15 $280 +$13 +5%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $97 +$42 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $82 +$16 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $70 +$12 +17%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $49 +$21 +43%
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit? May 01 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $28 +$1 +2%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $14 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $4,172 −$3,831 -92%
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner? Apr 26 $332 +$53 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $3,733 +$56 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,184 −$399 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $25 −$18 -73%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $2,812 +$2,175 +77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $1,958 +$6 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,765 +$196 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $28 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $33 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $33 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 90¢ $11 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 89¢ $4 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 80¢ $42 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 10h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 10h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 10h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 92¢ $18 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 76¢ $18 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 93¢ $18 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $37 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $37 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $34 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 98¢ $33 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 19¢ $33 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 91¢ $61 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.58 · official $48.58 (match) · 808 history records