Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa4…30eb world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%33W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$10
other 17% −$12
politics 16% +$1
sports 13% $0
economics 6% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 17% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 31 +59.2% +44.1% 35% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 83 +21.1% +9.5% 35% 4% -9.7%
all 91 +17.8% +6.6% 36% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 4% -10.0%
10% -3.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -12.9% 2% -26.5%
20% -21.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses33 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage532d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 89¢ 87¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $71 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $16 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 −$3 -50%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $156 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $82 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $43 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $60 −$4 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $70 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $64 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $81 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $78 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -21%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $40 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $7 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1 $0 +11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $23 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $14 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $24 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $22 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $26 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $18 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.84 · official $31.32 (match) · 389 history records