Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7fa4…68a7 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$19
politics 27% −$10
sports 11% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -4.2% -13.3% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage137d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $253 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,111 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $234 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $192 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $500 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $719 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $541 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $45 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $34 19d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 27d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $246 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.12 · official $99.12 (match) · 393 history records