Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa5…3689 crypto 50 markets active 2d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-7%) realized −$343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$370
14 days−$481
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$63
crypto 25% −$2
other 24% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -44.5% -49.8% 40% 20% -76.1%
≤30d 50 -24.7% -31.8% 42% 28% -17.8%
≤90d 50 -24.7% -31.8% 42% 28% -17.8%
all 50 -24.7% -31.8% 42% 28% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 28% -17.8%
10% -38.4% 20% -25.6%
15% -44.3% 20% -32.8%
20% -49.8% 10% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$45 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage11d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$27 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$4 +41%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $353 −$245 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$27 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$31 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$43 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $342 +$13 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $300 +$6 +2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$11 -41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $602 +$20 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$59 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $395 +$144 +36%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $331 +$69 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 −$50 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -84%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$15 -50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$19 -19%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$46 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $123 +$163 +133%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$104 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$102 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $9 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 18¢ $108 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $353 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $55 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $78 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $18 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records