Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7fa5…7621
other · 515 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$674 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,261 · open +$434
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,361
Realized−$1,261
Unrealized+$434
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses136 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions219
Markets (closed)295 / 515
History coverage33d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 219 History 295 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$683
14 days−$509
30 days−$1,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 80¢ 96¢ $153 $182 +$30 (+20%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $116 $117 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $116 $117 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? No 12¢ 88¢ $16 $112 +$96 (+614%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? No 72¢ 99¢ $78 $109 +$30 (+39%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $97 $103 +$6 (+6%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 88¢ $39 $78 +$39 (+98%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Yes 67¢ 50¢ $103 $77 −$26 (-25%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? No 68¢ 92¢ $54 $74 +$20 (+36%)
Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+18%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $47 $61 +$14 (+29%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 67¢ 68¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+3%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? Yes 21¢ 56¢ $21 $56 +$35 (+166%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? No 28¢ 62¢ $25 $56 +$30 (+121%)
City Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 58¢ 60¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? No 87¢ 100¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+15%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $42 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 26¢ 68¢ $17 $43 +$27 (+160%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $40 $43 +$2 (+6%)
Tuyo FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 61¢ 74¢ $34 $42 +$8 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $33 +$9 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $74 +$14 +19%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $28 +$8 +27%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Nico Hulkenberg get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $1 +$15 +1116%
Will Arvid Lindblad get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 +$15 +1116%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $31 +$18 +57%
Will Sergio Perez achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Jun 13 $0 +$1 +1290%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$3 +23%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $27 +$5 +18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $115 +$33 +29%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $37 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $16 +$14 +86%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $19 +$12 +65%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $50B? Jun 10 $6 +$9 +139%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Exact Score: UD Almería 3 - 2 CD Castellón? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30? Jun 09 $8 +$6 +70%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $15 +$36 +238%
Exact Score: Ethiopia 3 - 3 Malawi? Jun 09 $2 +$50 +3139%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Angola leading at halftime? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Armenia 1 - 1 Moldova? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in June? Jun 09 $2 +$9 +545%
Cambodia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Choi Min-ho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? Jun 09 $0 $0 +7%
Palestine vs. Kenya: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $23 −$7 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$761
sports 36% −$234
finance 4% +$39
weather 3% +$15
world 3% +$22
crypto 2% +$59
tech 1% +$33
politics 1% −$3
economics 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 36¢ $2 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 20m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 6¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $27 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $34 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 11¢ $2 1h
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $2 4h
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $27 9h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $145B by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $6 10h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 89¢ $13 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 78¢ $33 13h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 13h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $14 17h
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY No 78¢ $28 17h
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY No 5¢ $2 17h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June? BUY No 91¢ $14 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 12¢ $6 21h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY No 26¢ $2 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +137.6% +115.0% 55% 50% -21.4%
≤30d 273 +16.4% +5.3% 47% 42% -20.6%
≤90d 295 +12.0% +1.3% 46% 41% -19.7%
all 295 +12.0% +1.3% 46% 41% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 41% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 33% -27.4%
15% -17.2% 25% -34.4%
20% -25.4% 19% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,360.62 · official $4,361.36 (match) · 1735 history records